UK gets hotter, Asian pollution to treble

Two separate stories on the BBC News and other media websites today show the magnitude of the task of tackling global warming.

In the first story, scientists from the Met Office and the University of East Anglia reported that 2006 was probably the hottest in central England since records began 347 years ago. (The probably is down to the fact that’s not the end of the year yet.)

The average temperature for the year up to 13 December currently stands at 10.84C, 1.37C above average.

Globally, 2006 was the sixth hottest year on record and would have been hotter had it not been for the cooling effect of La Nina conditions in the Pacific Ocean.

The top 10 warmest years recorded globally have all occurred during the last 12 years.

At the same time as news broke of temperatures continuing to rise, the BBC also reported that the Asian Development Bank was predicting Asia’s greenhouse gas emissions would treble over the next 25 years. The bank’s own report warned the prediction was an optimistic one.

The ADB report said air pollution and congestion would seriously hamper the ability to move people and goods effectively. (What about the effects on living conditions and the environment?)

The report said the number of cars and utility vehicles in China could increase by 15 times over the next 30 years to more than 190 million vehicles. Indian traffic growth was predicted to rise by a similar levels.

Carbon dioxide emissions from vehicles were predicted to rise 3.4 times for China and 5.8 times for India.

What I found interesting about coverage of the ADB report is that nowhere does it ask where all the fuel for these vehicles is going to come from.

It’s fairly clear there will not be sufficient fossil fuel for that number of vehicles, while the amount of bioethanol and biodiesel would be prodigious and use up most of the world’s food production capacity.

So, what does the ADB think should be done? Much the same as Western governments and businesses - “Progress toward reducing the growth of greenhouse gases from the transport sector will require partnerships and involvement of a wide range of stakeholders.”

No need to worry then…